ARS | Publication request: Epidemic classification of phytosanitary situations on cereal crops using mathematical modeling

Submitted to: International Congress of Plant Pathology Abstracts and Proceedings
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: February 16, 2008
Publication Date: August 24, 2008
Citation: Sanin, S.S., Strizhekozin, J.A., Chen, X. 2008. Epidemic classification of phytosanitary situations on cereal crops using mathematical modeling. J. Plant Pathol. 90(S2):170.

Technical Abstract: Most plant protection researchers and experts divide emerging phytosanitary situations into three classes: epidemic, moderate development of disease, and yield depression. The known principles and methods for estimating these situations (Van der Plank J.E., Kranz J. et al.) do not fully describe the true picture of disease development and the corresponding economic damage. We offer a method of epidemic classification that uses a parameter we call the Epidemiological Hazardous Index. This index represents the volume of potential yield losses in the case of weather conditions favoring disease development. Potential yield losses are determined on the basis of phytosanitary observation data using the corresponding mathematic models. Using the proposed method for cereal crops (wheat, barley, and rye), we determined hazard indices (yield losses), corresponding to the classes of disease development. We developed mathematic models for calculating yield losses for some major cereal diseases. Using the proposed classification and corresponding models, epidemic frequency, yield losses, and the payback of protective measures can be estimated. A variant of this classification is used to assess the resistance of cultivars to epidemics, or their ability to resist the development of massive disease outbreaks.