Author
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Morgan, Jack |
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Submitted to: Global Climate Change Conference Proceedings
Publication Type: Book / Chapter Publication Acceptance Date: 9/1/2000 Publication Date: 8/1/2001 Citation: Morgan, J.A. 2001. Ecosystems and their goods and services, Chapter 5: Climate Change 2001. pp. 235-342. In: J.J. McCarthy, et.al. (eds). The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK. Interpretive Summary: Technical Abstract: Ecosystems are subject to many pressures (e.g., land-use change, resource demands, population changes); their extent and pattern of distribution is changing, and landscapes are becoming more fragmented. Climate change constitutes an additional pressure that could change or endanger ecosystems and the many goods and services they provide. There is now a substantial core of observational and experimental or physical processes in ecosystems (e.g., shifting range boundaries, flowering time or migration times, ice break-up on streams and rivers), most evident in high latitudes. Recent modeling studies continue to to show the potential for significant disruption of ecosystems under climate change. Further development of simple correlative models that were available at the time of the Second Assessment Report (SAR) point to areas where ecosystem disruption and the potential for ecosystem migration are high. Observational data and newer dynamic vegetation models linked to transient climate models are refining the projections. However, the precise outcomes depend on processes that are too subtle to be fully captured by current models. At the time of the SAR, the interaction between elevated carbon dioxide (CO2), increasing temperatures, and soil moisture changes suggested a possible increase in plant productivity through increased water-use efficiency (WUE). Recent results suggest that the gains might be small under field conditions and could be further reduced by human management activities. Many ecosystems are sensitive to the frequency of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other extreme events that result in changes in productivity and disturbance regimes (e.g., fires, pest and disease outbreak). Authors: Habiba Gitay, Sandra Brown, William Easterling, Bubu Jallow Lead Authors: J. Antle, M. Apps, R. Beamish, T. Chapin, W. Cramer, J. Frangi, J. Laine, Lin Erda, J. Magnuson, I. Noble, J. Price, T. Prowse, T. Root, E. Schulze, O. Sirotenko, B. Sohngen, J. Soussana Contributing Authors: H. Bugmann, C. Egorov, M. Finlayson, R. Fleming, W. Fraser, L. Hahn, M. Howden, M. Hutchins, J. Ingram, Ju Hui, G. Masters, P. Megonigal, J. Morgan, N. Myers, R. Neilson, S. Page, C. Parmesan, J. Rieley, N. Roulet, G. Takle, J. van Minnen, D. Williams, T. Williamson, K. Wilson |
