ARS | Publication request: Soybean

Submitted to: Book Chapter
Publication Type: Book / Chapter
Publication Acceptance Date: August 8, 2012
Publication Date: N/A

Interpretive Summary: The primary risk soybean production faces with climate change is likely to be from the effects of drought. Heat waves may contribute to water stress conditions, but in general soybean is well-adapted to high temperatures. Technological adaptation can likely take advantage of warming in some cooler growing regions. In other locations, shifting to earlier planting and maturity groups, as shown in Early Soybean Planting System program in the mid-south region of the U.S., takes advantage of cooler temperatures and avoids late season drought to produce soybean successfully. Rising concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide will promote yields, although ozone pollution curtails full capture of potential gains. Variability in precipitation and related weather events will lead to variability in soybean production annually, which will contribute to supply and price volatility in the marketplace. There is concern that indirect land-use changes due to increasing soybean production may contribute to deforestation and loss of carbon storage reserves.

Technical Abstract: The primary vulnerability of soybean production to climate change is likely to be from the effects of drought, which may be exacerbated by high temperature events. Technological adaptation can likely take advantage of warming in some production areas and rising concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide will promote yields, although ozone pollution curtails full capture of potential gains. Variability in precipitation and related weather events will lead to variability in soybean production annually, which will contribute to supply and price volatility in the marketplace. There is concern that indirect land-use changes due to increasing soybean production may contribute to deforestation and loss of carbon storage reserves.