ARS | Publication request: Prediction, Assessment of the Rift Valley Fever Activity in East and Southern Africa 2006 - 2008 and Possible Vector Control Strategies

Submitted to: Meeting Abstract
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: October 22, 2009
Publication Date: November 18, 2009
Citation: Anyamba, A., Linthicum, K., Small, J., Pak, E., Tucker, C.J., Chretien, J., Britch, S.C., Breiman, R., Hightower, A., De La Rocque, S., Formenty, P., Haagsma, K., Latham, M., Lewandowski, H.B., Sang, R., Schnabel, D., Richardson, J. 2009. Prediction, Assessment of the Rift Valley Fever Activity in East and Southern Africa 2006 - 2008 and Possible Vector Control Strategies [abstract]. The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. 81(5):186.

Technical Abstract: Historical episodic outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) since the early 1950s have been associated with cyclical patterns (El Niño and La Niña) of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon which results in elevated and widespread rainfall over the RVF endemic areas of Africa. Using satellite measurements of global and regional elevated sea surface temperatures, and subsequent elevated rainfall and satellite derived-normalized difference vegetation index data, we predicted with lead times of 2- 4 months specific areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa, Sudan and Southern Africa at different time periods from September 2006 to March 2008. Predictions were confirmed by entomological field investigations of virus activity in the areas we identified and by reported cases of RVF in human and livestock populations. This represents the first series of prospective predictions of RVF outbreaks and provides a baseline for improved early warning, control, response planning and mitigation into the future.