ARS | Publication request: MODELING OF CEREAL RUST EPIDEMICS IN RUSSIA: DEVELOPMENT OF DISEASE EPIDEMICS IN TIME AND SPACE

Submitted to: American Phytopathological Society Abstracts
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: June 1, 2006
Publication Date: July 1, 2006
Citation: Sanin, S.S., Ibragimov, T.Z., Strizhekozin, U.A., Chen, X. 2006. Modeling of cereal rust epidemics in russia: development of disease epidemics in time and space. APS Abstracts 96:S102. Jul 29-Aug 2,2006, Quebec City, Quebec, Canada.

Technical Abstract: To control quantity of settling spores and complex of photometric parameters, initial infection process by Puccinia graminis, P. triticina, P. striiformis fungi was studied. Factors determining speed of rust development on wheat crops in time and space and disease damage were studied. More than 400 experiments were conducted in various regions of Russia. A concept and model of rust epidemic development in space were established. The model was based on survey of large scale spore transfers and diseases that occurred in 1973-1989 in both European and Asian parts of Russia when severe rusts were recorded. The results showed that territorial distribution of the diseases proceeded in waves (cycles) equivalent to the distance of daily spore migration (150-450 km). Duration of each wave was 7 to 12 days (the latent period). The waves follow each other covering further areas where new infection sources appear. In 2-4 cycles the affected area extended up to 700-1200 km. Speed of spreading of the epidemic in space in 1982, 1983, 1985 and 1989 varied from 20.5 to 33.3 km per day. Mathematical models describing progress of the rust diseases in time and space and equations for estimation of crop losses due to rust were developed.