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United States Department of Agriculture

Agricultural Research Service

Title: POST-HURRICANE ANALYSIS OF CITRUS CANKER SPREAD AND PROGRESS TOWARDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR FUTURE WEATHER RELATED SPREAD

Authors
item Irey, Michael
item Gottwald, Timothy
item Graham, J. H. - UNIV. OF FLORIDA
item Riley, T. D. - USDA-APHIS
item Carlton, G. - FDACS, DPI

Submitted to: Plant Health Progress
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: May 11, 2006
Publication Date: August 22, 2006
Citation: Irey, M.S., Gottwald, T.R., Graham, J., Riley, T., Carlton, G. 2006. Post-hurricane analysis of citrus canker spread and progress towards the development of a predictive model for future weather related spread. Plant Health Progress.

Interpretive Summary: Asiatic citrus canker (Xanthonomas axonopodis pv. citri) has had a long history in Florida and has been introduced multiple times since the early 1900’s. With each introduction or discovery, eradication programs have been implemented to attempt to eliminate the disease. The most recent eradication program began in 1995, with the discovery of citrus canker in the Miami area. Since then, the disease has been discovered throughout the state with the spread being attributed to a combination of mechanical, human, and environmental factors. After the 2004 hurricanes that impacted a large portion of Florida, it became apparent that storm-related wind and rain greatly increased the spread of citrus canker in the state. By studying spread patterns in relation to the wind and rain conditions that were experienced during the storms, a predictive model was developed that accounted for approximately 80% of the storm related and subsequent secondary spread of citrus canker during the 14-month period following the 2004 hurricanes. The predictive model shows great promise as a tool to predict disease spread as a result of extreme weather events and as a means of targeting resources for citrus canker survey and detection activities.

Technical Abstract: Asiatic citrus canker (Xanthonomas axonopodis pv. citri) has had a long history in Florida and has been introduced multiple times since the early 1900’s. With each introduction or discovery, eradication programs have been implemented to attempt to eliminate the disease. The most recent eradication program began in 1995, with the discovery of citrus canker in the Miami area. Since then, the disease has been discovered throughout the state with the spread being attributed to a combination of mechanical, human, and environmental factors. Although many factors have been involved in the spread of citrus canker, the 2004 hurricane season appears to have been one of the major factors leading to the widespread and numerous citrus canker infections discovered in late 2004 and 2005. Geospatially referenced citrus canker infection data from infections that were discovered after the 2004 hurricanes were examined in relation to wind and rain conditions experienced during the hurricanes and used to develop a predictive model to explain storm-related spread of citrus canker. The model incorporates a “threshold” concept for wind and rains that, in-effect, incorporates only biologically significant weather parameters in the calculations. When applied to three distinct areas of the state, the predictive model accounted for approximately 80% of the hurricane related and subsequent secondary spread of citrus canker over the next 14 months. The predictive model shows great promise as a tool to predict disease spread as a result of extreme weather events and as a means of targeting resources for citrus canker survey and detection activities.

Last Modified: 9/1/2014
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