ARS | Publication request: ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF SPATIAL VARIABILITY IN CROP YIELD PREDICTIONS

Submitted to: BARC Poster Day
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: May 12, 2005
Publication Date: May 12, 2005
Citation: Shillito, R., Hima, B.L., Timlin, D.J., Reddy, V. 2005. Economic implications of spatial variability in crop yield predictions [abstract]. BARC Poster Day. p. 20.

Technical Abstract: Using a small experimental field and common management practices, we develop a framework to incorporate the variability and correlation inherent in field properties to predict potato yield. Specifically, we focus on spatial variability which has proven to be problematic to crop yield prediction. Is this valuable to the farmer? We investigate the difference in expected economic returns in predicted yields when spatial variability is accounted for and when it is not. We further examine the incorporation of specific field characteristics and various sample sizes in an effort to determine breakeven points where the cost of including the information in yield prediction is equal to the increase in predicted economic returns from its inclusion.