Technical Abstract: Water availability is a primary determinant of successful plant establishment on western rangelands. Two major factors that determine water availability are seasonal and annual patterns of precipitation, and the presence of competitive annual weeds. Seedbed-microclimate and germination-response models can be used to evaluate alternative management treatments and plant materials; and to incorporate medium and long-term weather forecasts into real-time management planning. In order to take full advantage of these tools it is necessary to separate short-term soil-stabilization, and longer-term biodiversity and restoration objectives. Emergency rehabilitation policies prioritize establishment of plants that will both stabilize the soil and compete successfully with invasive weeds. Weather-forecast information and modeling may be more useful to longer-term restoration planning where revegetation and weed-control actions can be deferred to coincide with a favorable microclimatic forecast.