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United States Department of Agriculture

Agricultural Research Service


item Paoli, Greg - DECISIONALYSIS
item Ruff, Lowman - HEALTH CANADA
item Jarle, Reiersen - UNIVERSITY OF ICELAND
item Aamir, Fazil - UNIV OF ICELAND
item Hiett, Kelli
item Stern, Norman

Submitted to: Campylobacter Helicobacter and Related Organisms International Workshop
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: May 15, 2003
Publication Date: August 12, 2003
Citation: Paoli, G., Ruff, L., Jarle, R., Aamir, F., Hiett, K.L., Stern, N.J. 2003. A dynamic model of Campylobacter jejuni contamination of broiler production and resulting human campylobacteriosis in Iceland [Abstract]. International Journal Medical Microbiology. 293:138.

Technical Abstract: A dynamic simulation model was developed to describe the system of broiler production and the impact of human campylobacteriosis in Iceland. The system of poultry production and marketing in Iceland provides a unique opportunity to study sources and risk factors for poultry-borne campylobacteriosis. This quantitative risk-modeling effort is being created and is evolving as part of an integrated epidemiological and microbiological investigation. The model is designed to incorporate findings from veterinary epidemiological analysis including the presence of seasonal risk factors, detailed characterization of the Icelandic poultry production system and a process risk sub-model that is applied to predict the number of illnesses generated from positive carcasses. The model was developed using a dynamic and stochastic modeling environment (Analytica(TM) to simulate production from parent flocks through to human consumption and illness, with the basic time-unit being one day. A typical simulation generates multiple random temporal sequences of contamination events and propagates the product through to consumption and illness over the course of a year. By changing model parameters, the model can be used to study the impact of alternate patterns or scenarios of contamination of broiler flocks as well as the impact of downstream mitigations, such as Iceland's policy of freezing carcasses from positive lots or changes in consumer preparation behavior. Further development of the model will allow for incorporation of spatial and temporal relationships in the prediction of contamination of broiler flocks and human disease.

Last Modified: 10/4/2015
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