Submitted to: American Society of Agricultural Engineers
Publication Type: Proceedings
Publication Acceptance Date: November 1, 2000
Publication Date: N/A
Technical Abstract: Based on climate records, average global temperatures at the earth's surface are rising. Based on a range of several current climate models, the mean annual global surface temperature is projected to increase by 1 deg to 3.5 deg C by the year 2100 and there will be changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation. This study looks at the potential effects of precipitation changes in the United States, including parts of southern Canada and Northern Mexico, on rainfall erosivity during the 21st century. The Hadley Center Global Circulation Models was used. Changes in erosivity were estimated based on relationships between erosivity and both the modified Fournier coefficient and total annual rainfall, as developed by Renard et al. for the RUSLE model for weather station data in the United States. Results show the potential for significant, and in some cases very large, changes in erosivity over the next century.