How accurately do maize crop models simulate the interactions of atmospheric CO2 concentration levels with limited water supply on water use and yield?

Authors: DURAND, JEAN-LOUIS - Inra, Génétique Animale Et Biologie Intégrative , Jouy-En-josas, France; DELUSCA, KENEL - Inra, Génétique Animale Et Biologie Intégrative , Jouy-En-josas, France; BOOTE, KEN - University Of Florida; LIZASO, JEAN - Technical University Of Spain; MANDERSCHEID, REMY - Thunen Institute Of Climate-Smart Agriculture; WEIGEL, HANS - Thunen Institute Of Climate-Smart Agriculture; RUANE, ALEX - Nasa Goddard Institute For Space Studies; ROSENZWEIG, CYNTHIA - Nasa Goddard Institute For Space Studies; JONES, JIM - University Of Florida; Ahuja, Lajpat; Anapalli, Saseendran; BASSO, BRUNO - Michigan State University; BARON, CHRISTIAN - Cirad, France; BERTUZZI, PATRICK - Inra, Génétique Animale Et Biologie Intégrative , Jouy-En-josas, France; BIERNATH, CHRISTIAN - Helmholtz Centre For Environmental Research; DERYNG, DELPHANE - University Of Chicago; EWERT, FRANK - University Of Bonn; GAISER, THOMAS - University Of Bonn; GAYLER, SABASTIAN - University Of Hohenheim; HEINLEIN, FLORIAN - Helmholtz Centre For Environmental Research; KERSEBAUM, KURT - University Of Hohenheim; KIM, SOO-HYUNG - University Of Washington; MULLER, CHRISTOPH - Inra, Génétique Animale Et Biologie Intégrative , Jouy-En-josas, France; NENDEL, CLAAS - Leibniz Centre; OLIOSO, ALBERT - Inra, Génétique Animale Et Biologie Intégrative , Jouy-En-josas, France; PRIESACK, ECKART - Helmholtz Centre For Environmental Research; VILLEGAS, JULIAN - University Of Leeds; RIPOCHE, DOMINNIQUE - Inra, Génétique Animale Et Biologie Intégrative , Jouy-En-josas, France; ROTTER, EDMUND - Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE); SEIDEL, SABINE - University Of Bonn; SRIVASTAVA, AMIT - University Of Bonn; TAO, FULU - Chinese Academy Of Agricultural Sciences; Timlin, Dennis; TWINE, TRACY - Csiro European Laboratory; WANG, ENLI - Csiro European Laboratory; WEBBER, HEIDI - University Of Bonn; ZHAO, ZHIGAN - China Agricultural University

Submitted to: European Journal of Agronomy
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 1/5/2017
Publication Date: 2/10/2017
Citation: Durand, J., Delusca, K., Boote, K., Lizaso, J., Manderscheid, R., Weigel, H., Ruane, A., Rosenzweig, C., Jones, J., Ahuja, L.R., Anapalli, S.S., Basso, B., Baron, C., Bertuzzi, P., Biernath, C., Deryng, D., Ewert, F., Gaiser, T., Gayler, S., Heinlein, F., Kersebaum, K.C., Kim, S., Muller, C., Nendel, C., Olioso, A., Priesack, E., Villegas, J.R., Ripoche, D., Rotter, E.R., Seidel, S.I., Srivastava, A., Tao, F., Timlin, D.J., Twine, T., Wang, E., Webber, H., Zhao, Z. 2017. How accurately do maize crop models simulate the interactions of atmospheric CO2 concentration levels with limited water supply on water use and yield?. European Journal of Agronomy. DOI 10.1016/j.eja.2017.01.002. ISSN 116-0301.

Interpretive Summary: Cropping system simulation models are state-of-the-science tools for investigating the impact climate change on crop production. Scientists from USDA-ARS collaborated with crop modelers around the world and tested 21 corn simulation models for their ability to simulate effects of increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, as it is expected to occur in near future, on corn production. In the field experiment that was used in this study, maize yield and water were measured in a 2-year Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment experiment conducted at the Thünen Institute in Braunschweig, Germany. The models reproduced the absence of yield response to elevated carbon dioxide under well-watered conditions and the impact of water deficit at ambient carbon dioxide. However under water deficit in one of the two years, the models captured only thirty percent of the carbon dioxide effect on grain yield. The need for further model improvement with respect to simulating transpirational water use and its impact on soil water status during the kernel-set phase were recommended.

Technical Abstract: This study assesses the ability of 21 crop models to capture the impact of elevated CO2 concentration ([CO218 ]) on maize yield and water use as measured in a 2-year Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment experiment conducted at the Thünen Institute in Braunschweig, Germany (Manderscheid et al. 2014). Data for ambient [CO2] and irrigated treatments were provided to the 21 models for calibrating plant traits, including weather, soil and management data as well as yield, grain number, above ground biomass, leaf area index, nitrogen concentration in biomass and grain, water use and soil water content. Models differed in their representation of carbon assimilation and evapotranspiration processes. The models reproduced the absence of yield response to elevated [CO2] under well-watered conditions, as well as the impact of water deficit at ambient [CO2 ], with 50% of models within a range of +/- 1 Mg.ha-1 around the mean. The bias of the median of the 21 models was less than 1 Mg.ha-1 . However under water deficit in one of the two years, the models captured only 30% of the exceptionally high [CO2] enhancement on yield observed. Furthermore the ensemble of models was unable to simulate the very low soil water content at anthesis and the increase of soil water and grain number brought about by the elevated [CO2 ] under dry conditions. Overall, we found models with explicit stomatal control on transpiration tended to perform better. Our results highlight the need for model improvement with respect to simulating transpirational water use and its impact on water status during the kernel-set phase.