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ARS Home » Plains Area » Bushland, Texas » Conservation and Production Research Laboratory » Soil and Water Management Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #330806
Title: Simulating future climate change impacts on seed cotton yield in the Texas high plains using the CSM-CROPGRO cotton model

Author
item BORDOVSKY, JAMES - Texas A&M Agrilife
item ADHIKARI, PRADIP - Texas A&M Agrilife
item SRINIVASULU, ALE - Texas A&M Agrilife
item THORP, KELLY - US Department Of Agriculture (USDA)
item MODALA, NAGA - Integrashare Solutioneering, Inc
item RAJAN, NITHYA - Texas A&M University
item BARNES, EDWARD - Cotton, Inc

Submitted to: Agricultural Water Management
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 10/14/2015
Publication Date: 10/29/2015
Citation: Bordovsky, J.P., Adhikari, P., Srinivasulu, A., Thorp, K.R., Modala, N.R., Rajan, N., Barnes, E.M. 2015. Simulating future climate change impacts on seed cotton yield in the Texas high plains using the CSM-CROPGRO cotton model. Agricultural Water Management. 164(2):317-330.

Interpretive Summary: The Texas High Plains contributes about 25% of the US cotton production; however, future production is uncertain because of dwindling groundwater resources from the underlying Ogallala aquifer, and future climate variability. Scientists from Texas A&M AgriLife Research, ARS, Cotton Incorporated and IntegraShare Solutioneering Inc. working under the ARS led Ogallala Aquifer Program assessed impacts of climate change on cotton production using crop growth simulation models. The evaluated model was able to accurately simulate seed cotton yield under various irrigation strategies over the four growing seasons. Predicted changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide during the 21st century led to increases in predicted cotton yields, while decreases in groundwater availability decreased predicted cotton yields. These results imply that cotton production on the Texas High Plains will remain a viable option for agriculture despite changes in climate and decreasing groundwater availability.

Technical Abstract: The Texas High Plains (THP) region contributes to about 25% of the US cotton production. Dwindling groundwater resources in the underlying Ogallala aquifer, future climate variability and frequent occurrences of droughts are major concerns for cotton production in this region. Assessing the impacts of climate change on cotton production enables development and evaluation of irrigation strategies for efficient utilization of groundwater resources in this region. In this study, the CROPGRO Cotton module within the Cropping System Model that is distributed with the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer was evaluated for the THP region using measured data from cotton water use efficiency experiments at Halfway over a period of four years (2010 to 2013). Simulated seed cotton yield matched closely with observed yield during model calibration (average percent error of 0.1) and validation (average percent error of 6.5). The evaluated model was able to accurately simulate seed cotton yield under various irrigation strategies over the four growing seasons. The evaluated CROPGRO Cotton model was later used to simulate the seed cotton yield under historic (1971 to 2000) and future (2041 to 2070) climate scenarios projected by three climate models. On an average, when compared to historic seed cotton yield, simulated future seed cotton yield across the THP decreased within a range of 4 to 17% when carbon dioxide concentration was assumed to be constant at the current level (380 ppm) under three climatic model scenarios. In contrast, when the carbon dioxide concentration was assumed to increase from 493 ppm (in year 2041) to 635 ppm (in year 2070) according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 emission scenario, the simulated future average seed cotton yield in the THP region increased within a range of 14 to 29% as compared to historic average yield. When the irrigation amount was reduced by 40% (from 100% to 60%), the average (2041 to 2070) seed cotton yield decreased by 37% and 39% under the constant and increasing carbon dioxide concentration scenarios, respectively. These results imply that cotton is sensitive to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and cotton production in the THP could potentially withstand the effects of future climate variability under moderate increases in carbon dioxide levels if irrigation water availability remains at current levels.