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ARS Home » Northeast Area » Beltsville, Maryland (BARC) » Beltsville Agricultural Research Center » Sustainable Agricultural Systems Laboratory » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #330535
Title: Meteorological fluctuations define long-term crop yield patterns in conventional and organic production systems

Author
item Teasdale, John
item Cavigelli, Michel

Submitted to: Scientific Reports
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 3/14/2017
Publication Date: 4/6/2017
Citation: Teasdale, J.R., Cavigelli, M.A. 2017. Meteorological fluctuations define long-term crop yield patterns in conventional and organic production systems. Scientific Reports. 7:688.

Interpretive Summary: Crop production varies considerably due to variability in meteorological patterns. Scientists in Beltsville, Maryland analyzed data from a long-term agroecological research project and found that annual fluctuations in corn and soybean yields varied on a periodic basis with periods lasting about 4½ years. Precipitation and air temperature during critical periods in the early and late growing seasons explained much of the yield variability, with precipitation during the late vegetative and early reproductive phases of crop growth accounting for the majority of variability in yield for both crops and five different management systems. Meteorological conditions at the site were partially explained by El Niño Southern Oscillation patterns, such that the lowest precipitation anomalies always occurred preceding winters with extreme La Niña and El Niño sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, and the highest precipitation anomalies always occurred preceding winters with relatively neutral SST anomalies. The efficiency of grain yield per unit precipitation was higher in conventional than organic systems, highlighting the importance of crop management for optimizing production in response to meteorological variability. Results will be of interest to farmers, government agencies and policy makers involved with policies related to agricultural production.

Technical Abstract: Periodic variability in meteorological patterns presents significant challenges to crop production consistency and yield stability. Meteorological influences on corn and soybean grain yields were analyzed over an 18-year period at a long-term experiment in Beltsville, Maryland, U.S.A., comparing conventional and organic management systems. Corn and soybean annual yield fluctuations could be defined by periodic models with periods of approximately 4.5 years. Critical periods for early and late season precipitation and temperature were defined for each crop and explained much of the yield variability, with precipitation during the late vegetative and early reproductive phases of crop growth accounting for the majority of variability in yield for all crops and management systems. Precipitation patterns at our site were partially associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation patterns, such that the lowest precipitation anomalies always occurred before winters with extreme La Niña or El Niño sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, and the highest precipitation anomalies always occurred before winters with relatively neutral SST anomalies. The efficiency of grain yield per unit precipitation was higher in conventional than organic systems, highlighting the importance of crop management for optimizing production in response to meteorological variability.