Climate-change adaptation on rangelands: Linking regional exposure with diverse adaptive capacity

Authors: BRISKE, D - Texas A&M University; JOYCE, L - Forest Service (FS); Polley, Herbert; BROWN, J - Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS, USDA); WOLTER, K - University Of Colorado; Morgan, Jack; MCCARL, B - Texas A&M University; BAILEY, D - New Mexico State University

Submitted to: Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 2/23/2015
Publication Date: 6/1/2015
Publication URL: http://handle.nal.usda.gov/10113/60947
Citation: Briske, D.D., Joyce, L.A., Polley, H.W., Brown, J.R., Wolter, K., Morgan, J.A., Mccarl, B.A., Bailey, D.W. 2015. Climate-change adaptation on rangelands: Linking regional exposure with diverse adaptive capacity. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 13(5):249-256.

Interpretive Summary: Earth's climate is being altered as atmospheric levels of trace gases, known collectively as greenhouse gases, continue to increase. These gases partially block the emission of thermal radiation into space, resulting in warmer temperatures and altered precipitation regimes. Climate change will alter plant production and forage quality on rangelands in the western U.S. to affect human livelihoods derived from livestock grazing. However, climate impacts on livelihoods likely will vary across rangelands because the expression of climate change is anticipated to differ among geographic regions. The southern plains and southwest are projected to become both drier and warmer, whereas the northern plains may become wetter, for example. The ability of grazing managers to assess risk and prepare for climate change also varies greatly, resulting in local to regional variation in capacity to adapt to climate change. The combination of geographic differences in the expression of climate change and differences in managers' capacity to adapt to change highlights the necessity of developing adaptation strategies that are sufficiently varied to accommodate the needs and abilities of diverse managers confronted with varied expressions of climate change.

Technical Abstract: The ecological consequences of climate change are anticipated to vary greatly throughout North American rangelands. Projections are for warming and drying in the southern plains, southwest and northern Mexico; warmer, drier summers, with reduced winter snowpack in northwest; and warmer, wetter conditions in northern plains and southern Canada. These climatic changes will modify ecological processes, through their combined effects on soil water availability, to alter plant production and community composition that will affect human livelihoods derived from livestock grazing. The ability of grazing managers to assess risk and prepare for climate change varies greatly - as expressed by varying degrees of adaptation to recent drought- to create a highly heterogeneous adaptive capacity. The simultaneous occurrence of geographically specific exposure to climate change and heterogeneous capacity to adapt to these changes will require varied adaptation strategies that can accommodate the needs and abilities of diverse managers that will confront unique ecological consequences. In a nutshell: 1) Climate change will influence the livelihoods of millions of humans in North America rangelands. 2) Livelihoods derived from livestock grazing will be directly affected by changes in the amount, nutrient content and seasonal availability of plant production, and heat and water stress, and pathogen loads on animal performance. 3) Geographically specific ecological consequences and heterogeneous adaptive capacity among managers represent underappreciated and interacting components of climate change adaptation. 4) Adaptation planning must recognize and accommodate both forms of heterogeneity to promote effective adaptation strategies.