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ARS Home » Northeast Area » University Park, Pennsylvania » Pasture Systems & Watershed Management Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #317921

Title: Projecting yield and nutritive value of an alfalfa-timothy mixture under climate change

Author
item THIVIERGE, MARIE-NOELLE - Agriculture And Agri-Food Canada
item JEGO, GUILLAUME - Agriculture And Agri-Food Canada
item BELANGER, GILLES - Agriculture And Agri-Food Canada
item BERTRAND, ANNICK - Agriculture And Agri-Food Canada
item TREMBLAY, GAETAN - Agriculture And Agri-Food Canada
item Rotz, Clarence - Al
item QIAN, BUDONG - Agriculture And Agri-Food Canada

Submitted to: ASA-CSSA-SSSA Annual Meeting Abstracts
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 6/1/2015
Publication Date: 11/15/2015
Citation: Thivierge, M., Jego, G., Belanger, G., Bertrand, A., Tremblay, G.F., Rotz, C.A., Qian, B. 2015. Projecting yield and nutritive value of an alfalfa-timothy mixture under climate change. ASA-CSSA-SSSA Annual Meeting Abstracts. Paper No. 412-11.

Interpretive Summary:

Technical Abstract: Previous studies showed that the effect of climate change on crops differs among species. However, dairy cattle are usually fed from a mixture of species, grown together. Forage mixtures are expected to behave differently than pure forage stands under climate change. The objective of this study was to assess the potential impact of future climate change on yield of alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) and timothy (Phleum pratense L.) grown in a mixture, with or without the implementation of a modified schedule of harvest, including additional forage cuts, as a measure of adaptation. The Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM) was used to predict forage mixture growth using 300-yr synthetic weather data representative of two contrasted climate areas in eastern Canada, for three periods (baseline, 1971-2000; near future, 2020-2049; and distant future, 2050-2079), two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), and three climate models (CanESM2, CanRCM4, and HadGEM2). Forage growth began up to 26 days earlier in the distant future than in the baseline scenario. Without modification of harvest schedule, climate change resulted in an increase in annual yield under all scenarios at the coldest area (+1211 kg ha-1 over the baseline). At the warmest area, annual yield increased in the near future (+773 kg ha-1), and decreased in the distant future (-126 kg ha-1). In general, the first forage cut was favored by climate changes while the second and third cuts suffered losses because of higher water and temperature stresses. The implementation of a modified schedule of harvest led to enhanced yield at both areas, but especially at the coldest area (+2075 kg ha-1 on average), therefore improving resilience of the forage mixture to stress induced by climate change.