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United States Department of Agriculture

Agricultural Research Service

Research Project: GENOMICS, GERMPLASM DEVELOPMENT AND IPM OF HOP

Location: Forage Seed and Cereal Research

Title: The use and role of predictive systems in disease management

Authors
item Gent, David
item Mahaffee, Walter
item Mcroberts, Neil -
item Pfender, William

Submitted to: Annual Review of Phytopathology
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: March 31, 2013
Publication Date: July 31, 2013
Citation: Gent, D.H., Mahaffee, W.F., Mcroberts, N., Pfender, W.F. 2013. The use and role of predictive systems in disease management. Annual Review of Phytopathology. 51:267-89.

Interpretive Summary: Disease predictive systems are intended to be management aids. This review summarizes the current opinion on their use and impact in plant disease management. We suggest that the impact of predictive systems is mostly pedagogic and indirect, improving recommendations from farm advisers and shaping management concepts. The continuing challenge for researchers is to construct tools relevant to farmers and their advisers which improve upon their current management skill.

Technical Abstract: Disease predictive systems are intended to be management aids. With a few exceptions, these systems typically do not have sustained use directly by growers. Rather, their impact is mostly pedagogic and indirect, improving recommendations from farm advisers and shaping management concepts. The degree to which a system is consulted depends on its amount of perceived new, actionable information, consistent with the objectives of the user. Often this involves avoiding risks associated with costly disease outbreaks. Adoption is sensitive to the correspondence between the information a system delivers and information needed to manage a particular pathosystem at an acceptable financial risk; details of the approach used to predict disease risk are less important. The continuing challenge for researchers is to construct tools relevant to farmers and their advisers which improve upon their current management skill. This goal requires an appreciation of growers’ decision calculus in managing disease problems and, more broadly, their overall farm enterprise management.

Last Modified: 10/1/2014
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