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Title: Some like it hot: the influence and implications of climate change on coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and coffee production in East Africa

Author
item JARAMILLO, JULIANA - University Of Hannover
item MUCHUGU, ERIC - International Centre Of Insect Physiology And Ecology
item Vega, Fernando
item DAVIS, AARON - Royal Botanical Gardens
item BORGEMEISTER, CHRISTIAN - International Centre Of Insect Physiology And Ecology
item CHABI-OLAYE, ADENIRIN - International Centre Of Insect Physiology And Ecology

Submitted to: PLOS ONE
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 7/14/2011
Publication Date: 9/1/2011
Citation: Jaramillo, J., Muchugu, E., Vega, F.E., Davis, A., Borgemeister, C., Chabi-Olaye, A. 2011. Some like it hot: the influence and implications of climate change on coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and coffee production in East Africa. PLoS One. 6:e24528.

Interpretive Summary: The coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei) is the most devastating pest of coffee throughout the world and causes millions of dollars in losses each year. Increased knowledge on the basic biology of the coffee berry borer, including responses to climate change, should allow to anticipate threats and prioritize management actions to reduce losses caused by the insect. Based on climatic models we report for the first time possible future distributions of the coffee berry borer in coffee producing areas of East Africa. The calculated hypothetical number of generations of H. hampei is predicted to increase in all C. arabica-producing areas from five to ten. This information will be of use to coffee scientists, entomologists, ecologists, and the coffee industry.

Technical Abstract: The negative effects of climate change are already evident for many of the 25 million coffee farmers across the tropics and the 90 billion dollar coffee industry. The coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei), the most devastating pest of coffee worldwide, has already benefited from the temperature rise in East Africa, and increased damage and shifts in its distribution range have been already reported in this part of the world, the centre of origin of Coffea arabica. In order to anticipate threats and prioritize management actions for H. hampei, we present maps, for the first time, on future distributions of the borer in coffee producing areas of East Africa. Using the CLIMEX model we relate present-day distributions to current climate and then project the climatic conditions under two scenarios. In both scenarios, the situation with the pest is forecasted to worsen in the current C. arabica producing areas of southeastern Ethiopia, the Ugandan part of the Lake Victoria and Mt. Elgon regions, Mt. Kenya and the Kenyan side of Mt. Elgon, and most of Rwanda and Burundi. The calculated hypothetical number of generations of H. hampei is predicted to increase in all C. arabica-producing areas from five to ten. Possibly the best way to adapt to a rise of temperatures in coffee plantations is the introduction of shade trees. This study aimed at contributing to fill some knowledge gaps in the coffee sector, and at helping delineate the first steps towards the development of an adaptation strategy package for climate change on coffee production.