ARS | Publication request: A computer model for predicting grapevine cold hardiness

Submitted to: Washington Association of Wine Grape Growers Annual Meeting
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: January 31, 2011
Publication Date: February 10, 2011
Citation: Ferguson, J., Mills, L., Tarara, J.M., Grove, G., Hoogeboom, G., Keller, M. 2011. A computer model for predicting grapevine cold hardiness. Washington Association of Wine Grape Growers Annual Meeting. Meeting booklet.

Technical Abstract: We developed a robust computer model of grapevine bud cold hardiness that will aid in the anticipation of and response to potential injury from fluctuations in winter temperature and from extreme cold events. The model uses time steps of 1 day along with the measured daily mean air temperature to calculate the change in bud hardiness, which is then added to the hardiness from the previous day. Three grape cultivars were studied: Cabernet Sauvignon, Chardonnay (both V. vinifera) and Concord (V. labruscana). The model was able to explain 89% of the variation in bud hardiness for Cabernet Sauvignon and Chardonnay, and 82% of the variation for Concord. We are currently integrating the model into Washington State University’s AgWeatherNet (www.weather.wsu.edu) to allow prediction of grapevine cold hardiness throughout the state. This innovative tool along with weather forecasts will allow growers to plan frost control, adjust pruning practices, or, in the long term, facilitate site selection.