Page Banner

United States Department of Agriculture

Agricultural Research Service


Location: Mosquito and Fly Research Unit

Title: Prediction, Assessment of the Rift Valley fever Activity in East and Southern Africa 2006 - 2008 and Possible Vector Control Strategies

item Anyamba, Assaf -
item Linthicum, Kenneth
item Small, Jennifer -
item Britch, Seth
item Pak, Edwin -
item DE La Rocque, Stephane -
item Formenty, Pierre -
item Hightower, Allen -
item Breiman, Robert -
item Chretien, Jean-Paul -
item Tucker, Compton -
item Schnabel, David -
item Sang, Rosemary -
item Haagsma, Karl -
item Latham, Mark -
item Lewandowski, Henry -
item Osman Magdi, Salih -
item Mohamed, Mohamed Ally -
item Nguku, Patrick -
item Reynes, Jean-Marc -
item Swanepoel, Robert -

Submitted to: American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: April 1, 2010
Publication Date: August 1, 2010
Citation: Anyamba, A., Linthicum, K., Small, J., Britch, S.C., Pak, E., De La Rocque, S., Formenty, P., Hightower, A.W., Breiman, R., Chretien, J., Tucker, C.J., Schnabel, D., Sang, R., Haagsma, K., Latham, M., Lewandowski, H.B., Osman Magdi, S., Mohamed, M., Nguku, P.M., Reynes, J., Swanepoel, R. 2010. Prediction, Assessment of the Rift Valley fever Activity in East and Southern Africa 2006 - 2008 and Possible Vector Control Strategies. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. 83(2):43-51.

Interpretive Summary: Rift Valley fever is a severe disease of domestic animals and humans in Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, and it poses a threat to other places in the world, including North America. Global and regional climate conditions, detected by earth-orbiting satellites, were used to predict three Rift Valley fever outbreaks in Africa from 2006-2008. These predictions formed the basis for national and international disease response efforts.

Technical Abstract: Historical outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) since the early 1950s have been associated with cyclical patterns of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon which results in elevated and widespread rainfall over the RVF endemic areas of Africa. Using satellite measurements of global and regional elevated sea surface temperatures, elevated rainfall and satellite derived-normalized difference vegetation index data, we predicted with lead times of 2-4 months areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa, Sudan and Southern Africa at different time periods from September 2006 to March 2008. Predictions were confirmed by entomological field investigations of virus activity and by reported cases of RVF in human and livestock populations. This represents the first series of prospective predictions of RVF outbreaks and provides a baseline for improved early warning, control, response planning and mitigation into the future.

Last Modified: 11/28/2015