Plant Science Research Site Logo
ARS Home About Us Helptop nav spacerContact Us En Espanoltop nav spacer
Printable VersionPrintable Version     E-mail this pageE-mail this page
Agricultural Research Service United States Department of Agriculture
Search
  Advanced Search
 
Programs and Projects
Subjects of Investigation
 

Research Project: EVALUATION AND IMPROVEMENT OF CEREAL GERMPLASM FOR DISEASE RESISTANCE AND WINTER-HARDINESS

Location: Plant Science Research

Title: Aerial dispersal and multiple-scale spread of epidemics

Authors
item Mundt, Christopher - OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY
item Sackett, Kathryn - OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY
item Wallace, Larae - OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY
item Cowger, Christina
item Dudley, Joseph - SCI APPLICATION INTL CORP

Submitted to: EcoHealth
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: April 7, 2009
Publication Date: February 13, 2010
Citation: Mundt, C.C., Sackett, K.E., Wallace, L.D., Cowger, C., Dudley, J.P. 2010. Aerial dispersal and multiple-scale spread of epidemics. EcoHealth. DOI: 10.1007/s10393-009-0251-z.

Interpretive Summary: Disease spread has traditionally been described as a traveling wave of constant velocity. However, aerially dispersed pathogens capable of long distance dispersal (LDD) often have dispersal gradients with extended tails that could result in acceleration of the epidemic front over time and space. We applied empirical data to a simple model of disease spread that incorporates a logistic equation to describe temporal disease increase and an inverse power function for pathogen dispersal. The model suggests that the position of the epidemic front will increase exponentially with time and that epidemic velocity increases linearly with distance. The scale invariance of the power law dispersal function allowed us to apply the model to spatial scales over five orders of magnitude, from experimental field plots to continental-scale epidemics incorporating both plant and animal diseases. It also may be possible to scale epidemics to account for effects of initial focus size and degree of host heterogeneity. The slope of the inverse power law approximated 2 for the data sets investigated, which would suggest that the position of the epidemic front doubles per unit time and that the slope of velocity plotted against distance is approximately 1/2.

Technical Abstract: Disease spread has traditionally been described as a traveling wave of constant velocity. However, aerially dispersed pathogens capable of long distance dispersal (LDD) often have dispersal gradients with extended tails that could result in acceleration of the epidemic front over time and space. We applied empirical data to a simple model of disease spread that incorporates a logistic equation to describe temporal disease increase and an inverse power function for pathogen dispersal. The model suggests that the position of the epidemic front will increase exponentially with time and that epidemic velocity increases linearly with distance. The scale invariance of the power law dispersal function allowed us to apply the model to spatial scales over five orders of magnitude, from experimental field plots to continental-scale epidemics incorporating both plant and animal diseases. It also may be possible to scale epidemics to account for effects of initial focus size and degree of host heterogeneity. The slope of the inverse power law approximated 2 for the data sets investigated, which would suggest that the position of the epidemic front doubles per unit time and that the slope of velocity plotted against distance is approximately 1/2.

   

 
Project Team
Brown-Guedira, Gina
Livingston, David
Cowger, Christina
Marshall, David
 
Publications
   Publications
 
Related National Programs
  Plant Genetic Resources, Genomics and Genetic Improvement (301)
 
Related Projects
   BREAD WHEAT DEVELOPMENT FOR NORTH CAROLINA
   THE NORTH AMERICAN COLLABORATIVE OAT RESEARCH ENTERPRISE
   COOPERATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF WHEAT GERMPLASM WITH IMPROVED RUST RESISTANCE
   COOPERATIVE RESEARCH FOR SCREENING AND DEVELOPMENT OF WHEAT GERMPLASM WITH IMPROVED RESISTANCE TO WHEAT STEM RUST
   COOPERATIVE RESEARCH FOR SCREENING AND DEVELOPMENT OF WHEAT GERMPLASM WITH IMPROVED RESISTANCE TO STEM RUST
   COOPERATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF WHEAT GERMPLASM WITH IMPROVED RUST RESISTANCE
   IMPROVING BARLEY AND WHEAT GERMPLASM FOR CHANGING ENVIRONMENTS
   NON FUNDED COOPERATIVE AGREEMENT FOR ARS IN RALEIGH NC
   DEVELOPMENT OF STEM RUST RESISTANCE IN WHEAT ADAPTED TO PAKISTAN
   BREAD WHEAT DEVELOPMENT FOR NORTH CAROLINA
   Non-funded cooperative agreement for ARS in Raleigh NC with NCSU
 
 
Last Modified: 05/23/2013
ARS Home | USDA.gov | Site Map | Policies and Links 
FOIA | Accessibility Statement | Privacy Policy | Nondiscrimination Statement | Information Quality | USA.gov | White House