Start Date: Oct 01, 2011
End Date: Sep 30, 2012
We propose to use a combination of small-scale ‘challenge experiments’ with which to estimate transmission probabilities, percolation thresholds and incubation periods that are then used to parameterize models from which to predict efficient methods for control. The challenge experiments will be complemented by population experiments to test and modify the model predictions for invasion and disease control. Simple percolation and network models will be parameterized to estimate biologically meaningful parameters such as transmission rates and dispersal kernels for both Phytophthora species within nurseries. The simple susceptible-infected model will be refined to give spatially explicit models based on the SIR (susceptible, infected, removed) family of modeling approaches, but with several important adaptations for plant disease.