Project Number: 6618-22000-039-19
Project Type: Specific Cooperative Agreement

Start Date: Aug 01, 2011
End Date: Jul 31, 2014

Objective:
1. Develop a generic epidemiological model that can be used to compare control scenarios and to optimize the probability of controlling and managing high-risk pathogens of agricultural significance. 2. Develop an economic extension to the epidemiological models to balance efforts between detection and control to maximize use of fiscal and manpower resources. 3. Develop user friendly model ‘front ends’ that can be used by researchers and regulatory agencies.

Approach:
Data sets to parameterize the model will be collected from U.S. epidemics of high-risk pathogens such as citrus huanglongbing and citrus canker and compiled for model use. Parsimonious, stochastic computational models will be used to provide an efficient generic modeling platform in combination with Markov Chain Monte Carlo and ABC modeling methods to estimate model parameters. An economic module will be developed for the model to simulate multiple scenarios for parsing manpower and fiscal resources between detection and control efforts to maximize use of resources. A user friendly ‘front end’ interface will be developed in Adobe Flash or equivalent platform for use by research and regulatory personal that can be placed on the Web or deployed directly.