Project Number: 6618-22000-039-15
Project Type: Reimbursable

Start Date: Jun 19, 2010
End Date: Sep 30, 2013

Objective:
1. Develop spatial and temporal models and assessment of disease control/mitigation strategies via incorporation of variable meteorological conditions. 2. Utilize these models to test alternative disease control strategies and to conduct scenario testing.

Approach:
1. Collect, analyze, and interpret initial HLB epidemic data. 2. Conduct field trials to determine the efficacy of rouging, insect control, and treatment combinations. 3. Conduct field trials to determine the efficacy of Murraya paniculata as a trap plant. 4. Develop preliminary spatial and temporal models and preliminary assessment of disease control/mitigation strategies. 5. Initiate development of stochastic models to estimate the temporal increase and spatial spread of HLB that are plastic and adaptable to other pest and pathogen systems. 6. Incorporate model parameters that allow the use of variable meteorological conditions, for instance in local conditions in citrus growing regions in various citrus producing states. 7. Utilize these models and statistical methods to test alternative disease control strategies via stochastic simulation and select those strategies which maximize the probability of success prior to test/deployment of control methods in the field. 8. Conduct scenario testing and the ability to estimate citriculture economic parameters such as estimates of fiscal and manpower requirements for yearly planning and budgetary requirements.