Project Number: 5447-21220-005-02
Start Date: Jan 15, 2010
End Date: Dec 14, 2012
A two stage model is proposed. The first stage of the model will generate ordinal quantitative risk assessment estimates for arthropod establishment-risk based on county characteristics using a “scorecard qualitative assessment approach.” The second stage generates a probability estimate (a cardinal measure) for an arthropod of high economic consequence becoming established in a South Dakota county, based on the first stage risk assessment rankings. We intend to collect data on: a) county attributes associated with risk establishment, and b) county level arthropod infestation data based on standardized sampling procedures targeting seven herbivorous pests that represent different taxonomic and feeding guilds consistently problematic for conventional corn fields in South Dakota. The data will be used to calibrate the two-stage model. The first stage of the two-stage model will be designed in accordance with the methodology developed in the country risk analysis literature. The country risk analysis methodology will be modified to provide qualitative risk rankings for county attributes correlated with successful pest establishment. The second stage will develop a logistic regression model that will relate the incidence of successful establishment in a county (sample data) to variables expected to influence the likelihood of successful establishment (county risk attributes). Our proposed high consequence corn infesting arthropod risk assessment project overcomes two flaws identified in the non-indigenous species (NIS) risk assessment literature: 1) our proposed county level risk assessment model provides cardinal rankings rather than ordinal rankings and thus provides a probability ranking for pest establishment risk; and 2) our proposed model focuses on only the establishment stage of invasion at the county level.