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United States Department of Agriculture

Agricultural Research Service

Research Project: EVALUATION AND EXPANSION OF A GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM (GIS) DEGREE DAY MODEL TO PREDICT RIFT VALLEY FEVER VIRUS RISK IN NORTH AMERICA Project Number: 5430-32000-003-04
Project Type: Specific Cooperative Agreement

Start Date: Sep 01, 2009
End Date: May 31, 2013

Objective:
The objective of this cooperative research project is to conduct geo-spatial analysis of the primary climate and habitat factors that will influence the establishment of Rift Valley fever in the continental United States. A preliminary GIS model already exists; and we will expand this model to the 14 states deemed to be at the highest levels of RVF risk through pathways analysis, and create an online database where users can assess risk in areas and over time periods of specific interest.

Approach:
We will update the model with new laboratory data (provided by outside collaborators) on the temperature-based transmission risk of possible U.S. vectors. If we can establish an accurate and robust enough data source, we will attempt to calibrate the temperature-based model with field data from Kenya. We will add at least one new layer to the risk assessment representing vector habitat. The combination of climate data, habitat data, and livestock density will enable predictions of maximum risk of RVF transmission and establishment in the US. We will create a database of transmission risk data that can be queried for risk analyses at specific locations or times.

Last Modified: 10/31/2014
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