Location: Vegetable Research
Project Number: 6659-22000-025-07
Start Date: Sep 01, 2012
End Date: Jul 31, 2015
Dr. Carter, Professor and Director of Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics, University of California, Davis, has previously studied the international market for tomato products. He has also modeled the introduction of new technology in agriculture and measured the economic impact of that technology. In addition, Dr. Carter has experience developing bio economic models (e.g., for strawberries), with expertise in international trade modeling. Dr. Carter has over 30 years of experience modeling commodity markets and is responsible for developing the economic models of the California lettuce and strawberry industries. These skills are highly relevant to the economic modeling of viral diseases in tomatoes. Specifically in the present project, in conjunction with partner seed companies and other Co-PIs, Dr. Carter will gather data on important tomato diseases to allow us to develop a bioeconomic model of the development and spread of these diseases. The diseases will be treated as a biological invasion for modeling purposes. This modeling will allow us to determine the key human and market factors that impact the spreading of diseases in tomatoes. Policy options available for controlling these diseases can then be simulated with the bioeconomic model. The benefit/cost analysis of alternative forms of control or management strategies to limit the impact of the disease will involve combining the bioeconomic model with a more traditional economic model of the world tomato industry. The global model is necessary given the importance of international trade in tomato products. The global model will be developed through gathering data on production, costs, demand, inventories, and international trade for the major players in the world market for the tomato products. Site visits will be made to China and Europe to gather the most accurate and comprehensive data available. Once the model is constructed it will be shocked with counter-factual scenarios to measure the benefits-costs of preventing/reducing tomato viral diseases.