Location: Northwest Watershed Management Research
Project Number: 2052-13610-011-12
Start Date: Sep 01, 2012
End Date: Aug 31, 2016
The current suite of Global Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios utilized by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) will be evaluated for their individual utility in predicting seasonal probability of exceedence values (PoE) for temperature and precipitation across a regional selection of meteorological sites in the western US. Seasonal predictions will be customized for traditional rangeland seeding seasons for weather estimation during critical seasons for establishment in the first year after planting. In the Great Basin region, most post-fire and restoration seeding occurs in mid to late fall (October-November). Predictive accuracy of GCM model output will be evaluated for subsequent winter (soil moisture storage at deeper soil layers),spring (critical for seedling establishment and near-surface microclimate) and summer (potential for juvenile seedling survival). PoE information will be converted to stochastic weather scenarios and seedbed modeling used to conduct sensitivity analysis on the degree to which forecast conditions need to exceed climate norms in order to justify forecast-induced changes in management. Land management and restoration professionals in BLM and NRCS will be included in the management team evaluating the utility of forecast tools, and manager surveys conducted to evaluate current barriers to use of active weather information in real-time management, and design decision support systems that can be used for effective technology transfer. Specific additional weather tools to be developed include a weather supplement that can be linked to specific Ecological Site Descriptions, and guidance for use of weather data in adaptive management planning for inclusion in revised NRCS conservation practice standards for rangeland seeding.