Project Number: 5430-32000-003-24
Project Type: Specific Cooperative Agreement

Start Date: Sep 01, 2011
End Date: Aug 31, 2014

Objective:
Develop stochastic and predictive models for arthropod-borne diseases of medical and veterinary importance. Build a stochastic network based model of Rift Valley fever transmission that involves mosquitoes, humans and animals. The model will be used to evaluate mitigation strategies to reduce mortality and morbidity during disease outbreaks and possible Rift Valley Fever epidemics.

Approach:
Mathematical models that incorporate disease vector transmission parameters will be used to determine the mortality and morbidity during disease epidemics. Specifically, a stochastic Rift Valley fever model will be developed that incorporates humans, livestock, and mosquito species. The model will consider mosquito and cattle population fluctuations based on movement and environmental factors. After establishing and validating the model, mitigation strategies will be evaluated for feasibility.