PREDICTIVE MODELING & MITIGATION OF EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MIGRATION & INFESTATION PATTERNS OF SEMITROPICAL/TROPICAL CROP PEST INSECTS
Insect Behavior and Biocontrol Research Unit
Project Number: 6615-22000-025-07
Specific Cooperative Agreement
Start Date: Apr 01, 2011
End Date: Feb 28, 2014
1. Establish a long-term regional monitoring network to collect fall armyworm migration data and specimens from appropriate times and locations.
2. Collections will be analyzed by a novel haplotype method to map the seasonal migration of fall armyworm from their FL and TX overwintering areas into the central and eastern U.S.
3. The data will be used to adapt air trajectory models, previously designed to assess the long-range transport of particles, for use in predicting FAW dispersal patterns in the U.S. under different climate change scenarios.
4. Assess whether increased use of sunn hemp (Crotalaria juncea L.) and cowpeas (Vigna unguiculata [L.] Walpers spp. unguiculata) as cover crops can mitigate the anticipated expansion of the fall armyworm migratory range without additional pesticide use.
Three experimental strategies are proposed. First will be the establishment of a monitoring infrastructure that uses fall armyworm as a bioindicator of climatic effects on migration. Second will be the development of forecasting models to identify agricultural regions likely to face climate-induced increases in fall armyworm pressure, and thereby facilitate grower decision-making on agricultural practices and crop choice. Third will be the development of environmentally-benign strategies involving the adoption of plant species as forage or cover crops that are unsupportive of fall armyworm development and provide other benefits tailored for use in heat and water stressed environments.