2013 Annual Report
1a.Objectives (from AD-416):
1) Improve assessment of impacts of climate change on agriculture in SSA and S. Asia and improved evidence on effectiveness of adaptation strategies.
2) Improve crop and agricultural trade models as well as calibrated outputs for Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia through model simulations of baseline period and model intercomparisons.
3) Improved regional projections of climate change impacts on crop production and the associated economic implications and identification and prioritization of regional agricultural adaptation strategies.
4) Strengthened capacity of researchers in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia to access and use crop and economic models.
1b.Approach (from AD-416):
This is a transdisciplinary project focused on the comparisons of crop and economic models applicable to South-Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The initial phase would be develop an infrastructure for the model comparison and identification of sites for the implementation of the project in these regions. Participants from each region will be selected via a competitive proposal process with awards issued to 12 Primary Investigators (PIs). These scientists would serve on a project team according to their expertise, and also act as regional representatives to facilitate the simulation of the effects of climate on their region. Developing region capacity will be improved through organization and collaboration among agricultural research groups, study visits with model developers, attendance at AgMIP international meetings, the collection of agricultural information, the improvement of existing crop and economic models, and the introduction of new crop and economic models calibrated and validated for a broad range of agroecosystems, the establishment of transdisciplinary climate impact assessment protocols, and investment in new computational equipment. PIs will gain technical capacity (model calibration, validation, and intercomparison; database development; use of climate change scenarios; economic applications; regional aggregation techniques) and international experience (at each workshop, all participants will interact to understand results; all participants will present their individual results; study visits will build collaborations and skills for analysis and communication). AgMIP will also participate in regional workshops organized by othe groups to disseminate results and build capacity among end-users and stakeholders. The AgMIP International Coordinator will monitor capacity gains as the project progresses, through evaluation of workshop participation, authorship of peer-reviewed journal articles, and crop and economic model improvements for regional use. This new capacity will be applicable beyond the AgMIP protocols, including for shorter-term agricultural forecasting, the identification and prioritization of agricultural adaptations, PIs’ experience working on international projects, and extensions (including for water resources and pest management).
This is an effort to utilize the Agricultural Modeling Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) as a platform to assess the impact of climate scenarios on crop production and economic returns for South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Through these efforts a request for proposals was developed and circulated to the research community in these different countries. Implementation of the six projects in Sub-Saharan Africa and four in South Asia have been underway since late 2012 with an initial meeting of the project teams and a mid-term project meeting in July 2013. Interim progress reports have been developed from each project and efforts are underway to evaluate the impact of current cropping systems in these regions and potential changes in cropping systems which would aid these developing counties under climate change.