2012 Annual Report
A Susceptible Exposed Infected Diseased Removed (SEIDR) model was developed that uses Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods, and extensive data from South Florida. This model portrays successive snapshots of the occurrence of symptomatic detected trees in known populations of susceptible trees. To date we have been able to estimate the transmission rates and dispersal kernel for huanglongbing (HLB) by interrogating this prior data center. Currently we are working on differential effects of host age on epidemiological parameters and variability across the plantation. This allows us to explore the uncertainty how the predictions which is then incorporated in models to predict spread and to allow for uncertainty in the efficiency and comparison of control methods. A web based version of the model is in the final stages of development. This web-based model is for non-researcher users you can utilize it as a tool to understand how the disease will increase and spread both residential and commercial situations. It can also be used to test a wide variety of epidemiological and climate/weather variables and their effects on an HLB epidemic as well as various disease control/mitigation parameters to see the effect of these various control strategies. The team has been using the data from southern gardens citrus that includes both young and mature trees, since host age is likely to be an important consideration for HLB. The model continues to be improved upon to capture more and more of the true features of the data and the disease. The model is being extended to estimate spread in diverse situations, should HLB be introduced into new areas such as Texas, California or Arizona. Field plots were established at the USDA, ARS Picos Farm to examine the effects of insecticide control and roguing in various combinations, both to evaluate treatment effects and to collect epidemiological data for model development. These field studies are underway as well however, at the time of this writing there are no detectable statistical differences among various control strategies.