2011 Annual Report
1a.Objectives (from AD-416)
Improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries.
1b.Approach (from AD-416)
The three-year project will provide the necessary integrated, transdisciplinary framework to assess climate impacts on the agricultural sector and will build capacity for continuing agricultural assessment and management in developing countries under changing climate conditions. AgMIP implementation will be led by Drs. Jerry Hatfield (USDA-ARS), Cynthia Rosenzweig (Columbia University/NASA GISS), Jim Jones (University of Florida). Research activities, implemented through an agreement with Columbia University, will be led through the coordination of four project teams:
1) Crop Modeling (led by Drs. Ken Boote, University of Florida; and Peter Thorburn, CSIRO, Australia)
2) Economics (led by Drs. John Antle, Oregon State University; and Gerald Nelson, IFPRI)
3) Climate Scenarios (led by Dr. Alex Ruane, Columbia University/NASA GISS)
4) Information Technologies (led by Drs. Cheryl Porter, University of Florida; and Sander Janssen, Wageningen Univeristy, Netherlands).
Each project team will have U.S. and international co-leads, and coordinates AgMIP participation from both developed and developing country research institutions to ensure that project activities are conducted with consistent protocols. USDA-ARS scientists are playing key roles in the development and conduct of research as members of each of the project teams. The teams will hold regular teleconferences to facilitate communication among participants and provide a mechanism for regular updates and oversight, enabling the teams to identify and address any problems that may occur. The teams will also help to organize and participate in annual AgMIP meetings. Visits to AgMIP participating field sites will also be conducted by one or more team members.
This project will be executed by ARS-Ames through an agreement with Columbia University, in cooperation with University of Florida, Oregon State University, CSIRO, Wageningen University and IFPRI. There have been a number of activities underway, including the development and review of protocols for each of the AgMIP areas of model intercomparisons, climate scenarios, informational technology, and economics. These protocols have been developed and reviewed by the AgMIP participants and are used as the guide for the project. Major crop modeling groups worldwide have agreed to participate in AgMIP, including scientists working in at least three crop modeling groups in the USA, one each in France, Australia, Italy, and the Netherlands, and an FAO generic model. Crop model intercomparisons are underway for wheat and maize with identified team leaders and participants. These two crops have the most extensive international interest and data bases for the intercomparison effort. Other crops (rice, sugarcane, and sorghum, etc.) have been identified as potential intercomparison efforts and these are being finalized for the project. Climate scenarios for the application of the AgMIP effort to an international scale are underway and awaiting the final process for the IPCC effort, anticipated for summer 2011. These will be used for the projections once the model intercomparisons are completed. The economic models have been identified and are awaiting the crop production projections using the climate scenarios. These will be trade models with an international scope in terms of the model dynamics. To facilitate the project, the IT infrastructure has been developed for the communication (website) and for data archival. This is a necessary part of this project to allow the international community to effectively participate in AgMIP. These activities have formed the foundation for AgMIP and apply across all international efforts. Teams reviewed early drafts of a call for proposals for sub Saharan Africa (SSA) and South Asia (SA), and held a planning meeting at the AgMIP South American Workshop with SSA participants to better plan regional programs in SSA and SA. Collaboration was strengthened through a number of interactions via email, and contacts were established in both Kenya and India to help with local workshop arrangements. Investigators contributed regularly to provide inputs to AgMIP leadership (Hatfield, Rosenzweig and Jones) for AgMIP direction overall, to inform project management and international coordination, and to contribute to the advancement of the four principal AgMIP Teams: Climate (Ruane), Crop Modeling (Boote and Thorburn), Economics (Antle and Nelson) and Information Technology (Porter, Asseng and Janssen). Weekly AgMIP leadership team meetings were held via telephone conference for one hour each Monday to coordinate activities, set priorities, and make key decisions about research, technical and management issues.