2013 Annual Report
1a.Objectives (from AD-416):
Improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries.
1b.Approach (from AD-416):
The three-year project will provide the necessary integrated, transdisciplinary framework to assess climate impacts on the agricultural sector and will build capacity for continuing agricultural assessment and management in developing countries under changing climate conditions. AgMIP implementation will be led by Drs. Jerry Hatfield (USDA-ARS), Cynthia Rosenzweig (Columbia University/NASA GISS), Jim Jones (University of Florida). Research activities, implemented through an agreement with Columbia University, will be led through the coordination of four project teams:
1) Crop Modeling (led by Drs. Ken Boote, University of Florida; and Peter Thorburn, CSIRO, Australia)
2) Economics (led by Drs. John Antle, Oregon State University; and Gerald Nelson, IFPRI)
3) Climate Scenarios (led by Dr. Alex Ruane, Columbia University/NASA GISS)
4) Information Technologies (led by Drs. Cheryl Porter, University of Florida; and Sander Janssen, Wageningen Univeristy, Netherlands).
Each project team will have U.S. and international co-leads, and coordinates AgMIP participation from both developed and developing country research institutions to ensure that project activities are conducted with consistent protocols. USDA-ARS scientists are playing key roles in the development and conduct of research as members of each of the project teams. The teams will hold regular teleconferences to facilitate communication among participants and provide a mechanism for regular updates and oversight, enabling the teams to identify and address any problems that may occur. The teams will also help to organize and participate in annual AgMIP meetings. Visits to AgMIP participating field sites will also be conducted by one or more team members.
The project is broadly on track to deliver against all but one milestone for 2013. Milestones for the Project Outcome are identified as citations. AgMIP has already submitted in excess of 30 papers.
1. 8-10 citations of AgMIP contributions on impacts to global and regional assessments including IPCC Working Group II: AgMIP encouraged participants to submit their papers before the submission deadline of Working Group II of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report and to target particular research foci that are of primary interest to IPCC authors. These included papers that address crucial aspects of the regional and global impacts of climate change on agricultural systems and related economies, the role of agricultural models to better understand these impacts, and related uncertainties. Noted are the series of papers related to each of the AgMIP/ISI-MIP Global Gridded Crop Modelling Intercomparison, the global agricultural economic model intercomparison, and an intercomparison of 27 wheat models in four major regions. Intercomparisons of 24 maize models have been completed for four major production regions with papers in the final review stage. Data sets are being assembled for intercomparison of rice, sugarcane, soybean, millet, and potato models. The AgMIP Regional Research Teams (RRT) Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and South Asia (SA) are also making excellent progress in conducting integrated assessments for their regions. Each team is on track to produce several papers by the end of the project.
2. 8-10 citations of AgMIP contributions on adaptation strategies to global and regional assessments including IPCC Working Group II: AgMIP has submitted several papers related to the generation of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) that form the testable basis for adaptation planning on global and regional levels. Each RRT in SA and SSA also works with local partners, stakeholders, and policymakers to generate RAPs that will guide project experiments and the interpretation of climate change impacts. These results come in the last phase of the project after RAPs have been defined and the climate-crop-economics simulation framework has been calibrated.
3. 8-10 locations with input scenarios and model datasets available on-line to allow on-going impact analysis in the regions post AgMIP: Data and experimental files have been generated for hundreds of locations in SSA and SA as well as on global grids, but these data must complete their internal vetting and peer-review before their planned release to the wider public. Data from the Global Gridded Crop Modelling intercomparison is being stored at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research's AgMIP/ISI-MIP repository (mirrored at U. of Chicago), including outputs from 7 global gridded crop models run under scenarios for 4 time periods, 2 emissions scenarios, and 5 climate models. These data will be made public following the acceptance of the submitted PNAS journal articles. Work is also underway in more than 10 integrated assessment sub-regions in SSA and SA using multiple crops and crop models within many regions, with data to be made public after internal project vetting.