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United States Department of Agriculture

Agricultural Research Service

Research Project: Evaluation of the Impact of Changing Climate on Food Security Through Global Agricultural Models
2013 Annual Report


1a.Objectives (from AD-416):
1) Develop an infrastructure for the international research community and establish a Steering Group from agronomic, resource economics, and climate modeling groups;.
2)Identify and recruit leaders and contributors for the crop modeling, economics, climate scenarios, and infrastructure teams, with an emphasis on attracting experts on major agricultural production areas and important markets as well as capacity and network building;.
3)Conduct a workshop for all participants to review the current science and establish the project goals;.
4)Develop agricultural modeling requirements and protocols, scale-up procedures, and reporting formats for project guidance website and;.
4)Establish/identify sentinel sites for ground-truthing models.


1b.Approach (from AD-416):
To address the goals of this international project will require the establishment of a infrastructure which represents the research community. The Steering Committee will be populated with representatives of the principal agencies and leads from each of the project teams. Project teams will: develop project guidance website with instructions and materials for participating scientists, including site-specific climate, emissions, and adaptation scenarios formatted for crop model input at needed temporal and spatial scales; develop online clearing house to gather, present, deliver, and archive results and information; collect 1970-2000 baseline period crop results for model inter-comparison; and develop quality control baseline period results against sentinel sites and correspond with crop modelers for adjustments. The Steering Committee will organize and conduct a workshop for the research community to evaluate and develop procedures for the project in late 2010.


3.Progress Report:

Model intercomparisons have been conducted for maize and wheat models and are underway for rice, sugarcane, potato, soybean, and millet. Data sets have been assembled for each crop from the international research community in order to provide a range of production environments and production levels. In the maize and wheat trials a suite of models produced a more robust estimate of production than any single model. Throughout the course of the model comparisons it was discovered that the interactions of carbon dioxide-temperature-water stress on plant growth and yield are not adequately quantified and the incorporation of these interactions in crop models is not well understood. Efforts are underway to evaluate how crop models can incorporate a new understanding of experimental observations and is the subject of a workshop at the 2013 American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America annual meetings and a monograph is planned from this workshop. A workshop on North America production systems was held in September 2012 to determine how climate will affect crop production and the potential economic impacts and forms the foundation for future assessments.


Last Modified: 12/25/2014
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