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United States Department of Agriculture

Agricultural Research Service

Research Project: Evaluation of the Impact of Changing Climate on Food Security Through Global Agricultural Models
2012 Annual Report


1a.Objectives (from AD-416):
1) Develop an infrastructure for the international research community and establish a Steering Group from agronomic, resource economics, and climate modeling groups;.
2)Identify and recruit leaders and contributors for the crop modeling, economics, climate scenarios, and infrastructure teams, with an emphasis on attracting experts on major agricultural production areas and important markets as well as capacity and network building;.
3)Conduct a workshop for all participants to review the current science and establish the project goals;.
4)Develop agricultural modeling requirements and protocols, scale-up procedures, and reporting formats for project guidance website and;.
4)Establish/identify sentinel sites for ground-truthing models.


1b.Approach (from AD-416):
To address the goals of this international project will require the establishment of a infrastructure which represents the research community. The Steering Committee will be populated with representatives of the principal agencies and leads from each of the project teams. Project teams will: develop project guidance website with instructions and materials for participating scientists, including site-specific climate, emissions, and adaptation scenarios formatted for crop model input at needed temporal and spatial scales; develop online clearing house to gather, present, deliver, and archive results and information; collect 1970-2000 baseline period crop results for model inter-comparison; and develop quality control baseline period results against sentinel sites and correspond with crop modelers for adjustments. The Steering Committee will organize and conduct a workshop for the research community to evaluate and develop procedures for the project in late 2010.


3.Progress Report:

The second Global Workshop of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison Program (AgMIP) was held in October 2011 and included reports from the climate assessment, crop modeling, information technology, and economic assessment project teams. Protocols have been developed for each of these teams to describe the activities and outcomes of their efforts. A Steering Committee has been established and provides guidance to the overall AgMIP effort. Model intercomparisons are underway for wheat and maize and these will be completed in late summer 2012. Model intercomparison efforts are underway for sugarcane, rice, millet, and peanuts. The emphasis for a North American regional workshop will be on crop model improvement with the linkage of changing carbon dioxide concentrations, temperature, and available soil water and their interactions on crop growth and development and how these are handled in the crop models. This workshop was held in Ames, IA, on September 4-7, 2012.


Last Modified: 4/16/2014
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