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United States Department of Agriculture

Agricultural Research Service

Research Project: Evaluation of the Impact of Changing Climate on Food Security Through Global Agricultural Models
2011 Annual Report


1a.Objectives (from AD-416)
1) Develop an infrastructure for the international research community and establish a Steering Group from agronomic, resource economics, and climate modeling groups;.
2)Identify and recruit leaders and contributors for the crop modeling, economics, climate scenarios, and infrastructure teams, with an emphasis on attracting experts on major agricultural production areas and important markets as well as capacity and network building;.
3)Conduct a workshop for all participants to review the current science and establish the project goals;.
4)Develop agricultural modeling requirements and protocols, scale-up procedures, and reporting formats for project guidance website and;.
4)Establish/identify sentinel sites for ground-truthing models.


1b.Approach (from AD-416)
To address the goals of this international project will require the establishment of a infrastructure which represents the research community. The Steering Committee will be populated with representatives of the principal agencies and leads from each of the project teams. Project teams will: develop project guidance website with instructions and materials for participating scientists, including site-specific climate, emissions, and adaptation scenarios formatted for crop model input at needed temporal and spatial scales; develop online clearing house to gather, present, deliver, and archive results and information; collect 1970-2000 baseline period crop results for model inter-comparison; and develop quality control baseline period results against sentinel sites and correspond with crop modelers for adjustments. The Steering Committee will organize and conduct a workshop for the research community to evaluate and develop procedures for the project in late 2010.


3.Progress Report

The first Global Workshop of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison Program (AgMIP) was held in October 2010 and from this workshop four teams were developed to help facilitate the goals of the project. These include a crop modeling team, climate scenarios team, information technology team, and economics team. Protocols have been developed for each of these teams to describe the activities and outcomes of this effort. A Steering Committee has been established and regional workshops planned to develop an infrastructure for model intercomparisons for wheat and maize. The AgMIP efforts are being linked to the national climate assessment for the U.S. in the evaluation of the carbon dioxide and temperature interactions. Weekly conference calls are held to discuss progress on the project objectives.


Last Modified: 7/22/2014
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