2013 Annual Report
1)how rapidly the decline in accuracy will occur and.
2)how often the retraining process must occur and how much of the lost accuracy can be regained? To address these questions, we analyzed three traits from two pure lines of broiler type chickens across 5 generations. The complete populations consisted of 183,784 and 164,246 broilers for two lines. The genotyped subsets consisted of 3,284 and 3,098 broilers with 57,636 SNPs. The training population consisted of the first two generations. Following 3 generations of selection based on ssGBLUP (genomic selection), we compared the accuracy with which EBVs could be predicted in those 3 generations based only on the genotypes (ssGBLUP) or pedigree (BLUP). Accuracy was determined as the correlation between predicted breeding value and the phenotype divided by the square root of heritability for that trait. Results showed that the relative accuracy for ssGBLUP remained about 33% higher than BLUP in all generations across both lines. The results differ from the predictions of the simulations from Muir (2007) who used the same set of assumptions as Meuwissen et al (2001). Our conclusion is that the results are characteristic of the infinitesimal model with thousands of quantitative trait locus (QTL) rather than a 100 or fewer as assumed by Meuwissen et al. (2001). There are a number of important conclusions from our results. The infinitesimal model is the most likely the correct approximation to the true biological genetic variation for these traits which implies:.
1)ssGBLUP is more accurate than any SNP based method (e.g., BayesA, BayesB, or other such methods, which assume a relatively small number of SNPs whose effects can be estimated and selected for; in contrast, the infinitesimal model implies that genomic selection improves accuracy by increasing the precision with which relationships are estimated),.
2)The results also imply that GWAS for these traits will find relatively few large effect QTLs,.
3)Missing heritability type issues will result if selection is based on small chip with large effects QTL, i.e. will account for small amount of total genetic variation,.
4)The results further imply that for these traits it will be possible to do genotype only selection for several generations before retraining will be necessary. In general these results are very favorable for genomic selection suggesting that such approaches will be useful in commercial breeding programs.