Residue Chemistry and Predictive Microbiology Site Logo
ARS Home About Us Helptop nav spacerContact Us En Espanoltop nav spacer
Printable VersionPrintable Version     E-mail this pageE-mail this page
Agricultural Research Service United States Department of Agriculture
Search
  Advanced Search
 
Publications
 

PMP FAQs - Interpreting Model Output
headline bar

1.  How do I interpret the PMP model predictions if the model was developed in a different food matrix than the one I'm interested in?

Without experience in the use of models, it is difficult to know if the model you use is over- or under-predicting bacterial growth or inactivation when applied to another food matrix. As such, it is best to use models to understand potential trends in bacterial behavior as the environmental conditions change. Only through validation studies (e.g. inoculated pack studies) would you be able to have confidence in model interpretation for your food of interest.

2.  How can you interpret a model that was developed in a sterile system to a situation where the food contains spoilage flora?

In general, this situation is most relevant to growth models. Depending on the pathogen, spoilage flora (e.g., bacteria, fungi) can markedly inhibit the growth of pathogenic bacteria. This is especially apparent at refrigerated temperatures where the growth rates of psychrotrophic (cold-loving) organisms may be greater than that of the pathogen. Therefore, in these situations, the maximum density (level at stationary phase) of a pathogen may be 3 to 5 log10 levels less that observed in a pure culture. Also, the growth rate may be inhibited. Therefore, in general, Generation Time will be shorter and growth rates and maximum population densities will be higher in sterile culture systems compared to systems containing spoilage flora.


   
ARS Products & Services Links
  ARS Products & Services
  TEKTRAN

 
Last Modified: 01/20/2006
ARS Home | USDA.gov | Site Map | Policies and Links 
FOIA | Accessibility Statement | Privacy Policy | Nondiscrimination Statement | Information Quality | USA.gov | White House